The Naked Flame

I just watched the Daily Show segment where Jon Stewart talks to Mike Huckabee about social conservatism and gay rights. Although I have to count myself firmly on the side of Jon on this issue, and I was once again blown away by how good Jon is when he puts on his 'reporter hat', I also have to admit my respect for Mike.

Don't get me wrong, I do not buy Mike's arguments for a second, but in this day and age we could all bring up some respect for those on the other side of the political isle from us that are prepared to come and discuss contentious issues without resorting to yelling or name calling or outright contrived argumentation.

I guess I can put my political-junkie inner self away again for another few years. It was fun to keep track of the US election, but now that it's all said and done it is time to wait and see what the outcome really means for the US and the world as a whole.

If nothing else, it has been inspiring to see a political win not fueled by corporate money and purely personal attacks.

Barring aliens abducting Obama, the writing is on the wall and it spells 'Congratulation Obama, President-elect'. Which means now I will just wait and enjoy the remaining polls, and the unfolding of how large his victory will be.

To make this waiting a little more exciting I have decided I'll play a game of Electoral College Bingo. I'll be following the elections on November 5th (yes, we're quite a bit ahead of the US ;)) from my office, with some alcoholic-beverage-substitute, and every correctly predicted state (for either party) I'll take a sip.

'Easy' Obama states:
- Vermont
- Massachusetts
- New York
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- Pennsylvania
- New Jersey
- Delaware
- Maryland
- DC
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Oregon
- California
- Hawaii

'Looking easy now' Obama states:
- Maine
- Florida
- Wisconsin
- Colorado
- New Mexico
- Washington

'My additional predictions' Obama states:
- New Hampshire
- Ohio
- Minnesota
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- Nevada

For 10 bonus sips each, 'Who would have thought', Obama states:
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Missouri
- Arkansas(!)
- North Dakota(!)
- Montana(!)

(And the remainder for McCain then obviously).

Ignoring my bonus picks I guess this means I predict a final tally of 353 for Obama (and 403 counting the bonus picks... although I also expect pigs to fly in that case; if he actually makes 403 or more, I'll be forced to down the remainder of whatever bottle I have to hand... good thing it won't be actual alcohol!).

As I was watching the Second US Presidential Debate for 2008 today, only half paying attention to the words half following the commentary in the popular blogs, something occurred to me.

The sad truth is that modern politics is a clear case of the applicability of the Tragedy of the Commons to almost any corner of human endeavour.

Arguably we would all be much better served if politicians all stuck to the high minded ideals of substance over personal attack... accurate facts over populist sound bites. But as The Tragedy tells us, whenever there is a pristine scarce resource (unsullied votes) that multiple people have an interest in cultivating (Obama/McCain/others) and where doing the wrong thing (mudslinging) although worse for the overall outcome disproportionately favours those that go all-out, the worst comes out in human nature.

I cringe for both McCain and Obama whenever they do it. McCain by all accounts actually was a maverick once, worthy of the term reformer... but you'd hardly recognise it this final month of the campaign. Similarly Obama started his campaign on the high-minded 'Hope' and 'Yes we Can', but ultimately was never going to be able to skate through without at least tit-for-tat.

I get it... attacks are easy. You can say whatever you like about your opponent; those that support you regardless will believe whatever you say, those that may research and expose the lie weren't likely to be voting for you, and the undecideds? That's where these tactics try to fight the battle... crafting smears and insinuations that are calculated to pull the heartstrings of the middle whilst not waking them out of their trance with an overt lie. It is all a carefully calculated strategy of small attacks, and I hate it, but I also understand why.

It is all just emergent behaviour from the combined "laws of politics" and "human nature", to expect another outcome would be akin to expecting a metropolis in the desert: not impossible, but definitely not likely.

Thank god it's all but over now... barring a miracle/disaster (depending on your point of view) Obama will be the 44th president of the United States of America, where he will arguably get the most messed up country in the history of humanity and a deadline of 4 years to make the best of it.

Consider it Changing Rooms on the ultimate larger scale; there is no saying how weird, wonderful or cringe-worthy it could be.

Today I found what will be my favourite site for the ongoing US election: "FactCheck". I do not know why I hadn't heard of it before, but it is exactly what I was craving.

This site is fully funded by a non-partisan foundation and is set up as a sort of "consumer protection organisation" aimed at providing factual information about statements made by both sides of the political race.

From what I have read so far they appear to do a very good job of pointing out factual inconsistencies and/or lies by both McCain and Obama. In the process the articles all provide a wealth of links where the facts of the matter can be verified further.

It almost brings a tear to my eye.

I have to profess that ever since watching The West Wing I have been fascinated with the US political process. This is strange in that (1) I am not in the US and (2) where I am I do not get to vote either.

As such, the twists and turns in this 2008 election cycle so far have been interesting and exasperating. The one thing that is universally disheartening is the tone of the discourse on all the blogs that I read in this matter. Not so much the blog posts themselves as the comment threads attached to them. Talk about extremes from both sides of the aisle.

Especially the best place to keep up to date with raw polling data seems to have both sides alternately cheering and booing identically depending on how the numbers fall.

What is particularly funny (to watch) and annoying (from the perspective of an intelligent and mostly impartial observer) is how both sides almost universally try to read the numbers like every change in them has a deep and hidden meaning... talk about reading tea leaves!

In this election as all presidential elections there are very few absolute givens:

• California will go into the Dem column
• Most of the north-west and east coast will also be Dem
• Texas will go into the Rep column
• Most of the heartland will also be Rep

And this doesn't even take polls to divine.

What most seem to forget is that poll numbers only reflect what the people that were called are prepared to admit on the phone to a pollster.

Was a representative sample called? That cannot really be conclusively answered because that depends on the relative turn-out of democratic and republican sympathisers in November.

Did they tell the truth? Well, talking to a person (or for automated polls, which in the moment on some psychological level still feel like talking to a human) and anonymously voting in the privacy of a voting booth are two entirely different things.

On the one hand many professing support for Obama over the phone may very well end up having some latent reservations about a black president in that moment they have to ultimately choose in the booth. You can argue about that being racist, but that doesn't change the fact that people are free to vote on any basis they personally see fit.

On the other hand many professing support for McCain to a pollster could just as easily find themselves in the booth with a sudden doubt about whether the future would really be any different from the past in a way that is meaningful to them.

In the end the polls are just numbers with relatively little meaning that implicitly translates to a national level, and short of either side really polling well outside the margin of a possible opposite outcome I'll just sit back and enjoy the fireworks in the blogs.